Stopping the Chiefs’ offense might be the bigger test. But the key there is finishing drives – Kansas City has been one of the top-scoring defenses for the final two-thirds of the season.
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The Chiefs rank 21st against the run and 27th against the pass, giving the Bills some flexibility on how to attack. Buffalo has run for 163.8 yards per game over that span.
Josh Allen and the offense are averaging 32.3 points over its past six games, with part of that being due to the emergence of the Bills’ ground game. The Bills are fresh off a 30-point drubbing of New England in the wild card round. Make no mistake, Buffalo is playing some of its best football at the right time. If Buffalo thinks it can come into Kansas City and dominate the way it did in October, the Bills will be in for a much tougher challenge.
The Kansas City defense has also improved exponentially since the first Buffalo game, but it’s still going to have its hands full with Josh Allen. That’s a great sign heading into a matchup with a Buffalo defense that allows the NFL’s fewest points per game. The offense has corrected its giveaway issues – it had 19 in the first eight games and just eight since, including two in the wild card game – and Mahomes is riding the momentum of a 400-plus yard, five-touchdown game against Pittsburgh. Except Buffalo completely outplayed them in Arrowhead in October on a night where Patrick Mahomes had three turnovers. The spread has now dropped to 1.5 points. The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites in Arrowhead Stadium, where they are 8-2 this year. With a blowout win over the Steelers, Kansas City set up a rematch of last year’s AFC title game as it hosts the Bills this week. The Chiefs have now advanced to at least the divisional round in a fourth consecutive postseason and now have a chance to host the AFC title game for the fourth consecutive year after Tennessee’s loss on Saturday.